PredictionMarketsPicks Quant
Kant araçları + AI ajanları için bir NFL fantezi draft asistanı — Kalshi & Polymarket EV, edge, ADP.
Dokümantasyon
PredictionMarketsPicks MCP
A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents institutional-grade quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform arbitrage, live edge signals, NFL model-vs-market edges, and a full 2026 fantasy football draft assistant. 23 tools — 16 free, 2 free-with-caps, 5 Pro.
- Endpoint (Streamable HTTP):
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp - Registry name:
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant(Model Context Protocol registry) - Docs / landing page: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp
- Manifest:
server.json· also served athttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/.well-known/mcp/server.json - Type: Cloud service ☁️ · TypeScript 📇
Demo
Watch the 40-second walkthrough — connect the server with one command, then ask in plain English and get quarter-Kelly position sizing from kelly_size and a model-vs-Kalshi edge read from nfl_edge, returned inside the chat.
This repo is the public home and documentation for the hosted server. The server is live — no install, no build. Point any MCP client at the endpoint above.
It also ships a local, self-contained build of the six free calculators (src/) — a stdio MCP server with no network access that runs in any sandbox. See Run the free tier locally. The Pro tools read live PMP edge engines and are only available on the hosted endpoint.
Tools
The free tier is a set of stateless quant calculators plus the whole 2026 fantasy draft assistant. Pro tools read PredictionMarketsPicks' live edge engines and require an API key. Two tools sit in between (Capped): they answer without a key at a limited depth and return more with a free key (just an email, no card) at /mcp/key.
| Tool | Tier | What it does |
|---|---|---|
calculate_ev | Free | Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. |
kelly_size | Free | Optimal Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating. |
bayes_update | Free | Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence via Bayes' theorem; returns the posterior and the per-step chain. |
convert_probability | Free | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds (American odds carry no commas). |
base_rate_gap | Free | Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample-size quality. |
combo_edge | Free | Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, and a negative-correlation-trap flag. Renders as an interactive card in supported hosts. |
nfl_power_ratings | Free | Gridiron Edge Rating (GER) for all 32 NFL teams — a defense-adjusted power rating with offense/defense/special-teams splits. |
nfl_win_probability | Free | Turn an NFL spread and total into win probability, projected score, cover probability, and over/under probability. |
draft_board | Free | The 2026 half-PPR fantasy draft board — every player ranked, blending the projection model with consensus ADP. |
best_available | Free | Best players still on the board given the current pick and who's already gone. |
player_outlook | Free | One player's 2026 outlook: projected points, floor/ceiling, boom/bust odds, and a SLEEPER / BUST read. |
explain_player | Free | Why the board ranks a player where it does — our model rank vs consensus ADP vs the published blend, the edge between them, and what the projection does and does not model. |
compare_players | Free | Compare 2–4 players side by side — projection, floor/ceiling, ADP, and draft round. |
sleepers_and_busts | Free | The biggest gaps between the model and consensus ADP for 2026. |
who_do_i_draft | Free | The single best pick right now given your roster and pick number. |
adp_market_gaps | Free | Players whose Average Draft Position swings most between platforms — consensus vs ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo. |
find_arbitrage | Capped | Cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup). No key returns the single largest gap in full detail; a free key returns the top 3; Pro returns the whole board. |
market_pulse | Capped | US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime — free without a key, always — plus the six category scores: 2 without a key, 4 with a free key, all six on Pro. |
commodity_edge | Pro | Largest model edge on a Kalshi weekly-silver or twice-daily bitcoin strike, as a trade ticket (side, price, criterion, edge, tier, ¼-Kelly). |
scan_mispricings | Pro | Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model, with direction, edge in points, and quarter-Kelly sizing. |
nfl_edge | Pro | Where the PMP NFL model disagrees with live Kalshi prices — game lines, win-total futures, MVP, championship. |
nfl_prop_edge | Pro | NFL player-prop edges — model projection vs the Kalshi prop line (passing, rushing, receiving yards). |
edge_alerts | Pro | The edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. |
All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).
Connect
Claude Code
claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
Claude.ai, ChatGPT, or Cursor — add a custom connector / MCP server with the URL:
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
The 16 free tools work with no key. Pro tools require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key — see https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp.
Run the free tier locally
The six core free calculators run entirely offline as a stdio MCP server — no key, no network. Useful for air-gapped agents, testing, or sandboxed hosts.
npm install
npm start # stdio MCP server: 6 free tools
npm run smoke # end-to-end self-test
Or with Docker:
docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant
Point a stdio MCP client at node src/index.js (or the container). The local build ships the six core calculators only; the other 17 tools (draft assistant, NFL models, and the Pro edge engines) read live PMP data and are hosted-only — use the endpoint above.
About
Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles.
License
MIT — see LICENSE. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks; this repository covers the server's public interface and documentation.