model-update

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Model Update

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:

Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in
Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook
Estimate revision: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

Step 2: Plug New Data

After Earnings

Update the model with reported actuals:

Line Item	Prior Estimate	Actual	Delta	Notes
Revenue
Gross Margin
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
EPS
[Key metric 1]
[Key metric 2]

Segment Detail (if applicable):

Update each segment's revenue and margin
Note any segment mix shifts

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates:

Cash and debt balances
Share count (buybacks, dilution)
Capex actual vs. estimate
Working capital changes

Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

	Old FY Est	New FY Est	Change	Old Next FY	New Next FY	Change
Revenue
EBITDA
EPS

Key Assumption Changes:

What assumptions are you changing and why?
Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

Valuation Method	Prior	Updated	Change
DCF fair value
P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple)
EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple)
Price Target

Step 5: Summary & Action

Estimate Change Summary:

One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

Rating / Price Target:

Maintain or change rating?
New price target (if changed) with methodology
Upside/downside to current price

Step 6: Output

Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
Updated price target derivation

Important Notes

Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS