Antevo Tremor Watch

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Antevo · Tremor Watch The week ending Friday 30 October 2026 · published every Saturday · Permalink · JSON · Archive

697 relationships, 64 stopped behaving.

Out of 1,348 Fridays since 2001, this is the 184th most unsettled.

Every week we check how 697 pairs of markets stand to each other. This week the breaks gather in volatility and equity regions: 35 of 176 pairs, where a normal Friday has 9. Bonds have not joined in.

a normal Friday 1×

last week 2.9×

Oct 2008 · 14×

worst on record · Feb 2020 · 22×

this week 3.1×

Height

3.1×

a normal Friday. Elevated: weeks this high come 14 in 100. Feb 2020 peaked at 22×, Oct 2008 at 14×.

Breadth

2 of 7 families hot: volatility and equity regions. A family is hot when three times as many of its pairs break as on a normal Friday.

Direction

week 3

Rising, 2.9× → 3.1×, third week above the Elevated line (2.1×). Last time it stood here on the way up: Jun 2026.

Reach into bonds

Not yet.

8 of 140 bond pairs breaking, where a normal Friday has 9. Credit: 9 of 112, normal 6.

Volatility

11 of 56 · normal 3

Equity regions

24 of 120 · normal 6

US sectors

7 of 45 · normal 3

Credit

9 of 112 · normal 6

Bonds

8 of 140 · normal 9

Commodities

3 of 112 · normal 6

FX and crypto

2 of 112 · normal 7

holdscame apartmoved closerVolatility: 11 breaking where a normal Friday has 3. Bonds: 8 where normal is 9. This first reading is provisional: 56 pairs have no reading yet and are filled in next Saturday.

Ten relationships that stopped behaving.

The ones you can name, ranked by how unusual. Of the 64, 20 are new this week; 44 were breaking last week too. A pair stays listed while it is more than two standard deviations from its own past.

1. 01 FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol) Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.09 · z −3.2
2. 02 SMI ⟋ Jakarta Usually move together; now they move against each other. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.34 · z −3.2
3. 03 Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC Usually move together; now they move against each other. also last week · came apart · correlation −0.27 · z −3.1
4. 04 Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol) Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.11 · z −3.0
5. 05 FTSE 100 ⟋ Jakarta Usually move together; now they move against each other. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.35 · z −3.0
6. 06 US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary Usually move together; much less so now. also last week · came apart · correlation 0.28 · z −3.0
7. 07 Bovespa ⟋ US HY credit Usually move together; now they move against each other. new this week · came apart · correlation −0.31 · z −2.9
8. 08 Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY credit Usually move together; now they move against each other. also last week · came apart · correlation −0.31 · z −2.9
9. 09 TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP) Usually move together; now they move against each other. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.35 · z −2.9
10. 10 US Staples ⟋ VIX (equity vol) Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.31 · z −2.7

Left the list since last Friday: TSX ⟋ Bovespa (z −2.3 → −1.6) · Tadawul — EM corporate credit (z +2.2 → +1.9) · US Industrials ⟋ US Staples (z −2.1 → −1.9) · and 9 more

The other 54 are real but not readable as a list. They are all in the field above, one mark each; here they are in a table.

Family	Pair	Direction	Correlation	z
Volatility	FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.09	−3.2
Equity regions	SMI ⟋ Jakarta	came apart	−0.34	−3.2
Equity regions	Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.27	−3.1
Volatility	Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.11	−3.0
Equity regions	FTSE 100 ⟋ Jakarta	came apart	−0.35	−3.0
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary	came apart	0.28	−3.0
Credit	Bovespa ⟋ US HY credit	came apart	−0.31	−2.9
Credit	Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY credit	came apart	−0.31	−2.9
Bonds	TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP)	came apart	−0.35	−2.9
Volatility	US Staples ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.31	−2.7
Credit	US Tech ⟋ US IG credit	came apart	0.17	−2.7
Credit	Tadawul — US HY credit	moved closer	0.63	+2.6
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Staples	came apart	−0.56	−2.6
Equity regions	FTSE 100 ⟋ KOSPI	came apart	−0.39	−2.6
Volatility	SMI ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.08	−2.5
Equity regions	Sensex ⟋ Jakarta	came apart	−0.34	−2.5
FX and crypto	US Utilities ⟋ Bitcoin	came apart	−0.45	−2.5
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.42	−2.5
Equity regions	SMI ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.29	−2.5
Commodities	Tadawul ⟋ Natural gas	came apart	0.46	−2.5
Equity regions	Bovespa ⟋ Tadawul	came apart	−0.33	−2.5
Credit	US Tech ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	−0.00	−2.5
Bonds	SMI — TIPS (TIP)	moved closer	0.67	+2.5
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Real estate	came apart	−0.33	−2.4
Bonds	KOSPI ⟋ TIPS (TIP)	came apart	−0.37	−2.4
Credit	Bovespa ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	−0.39	−2.4
Volatility	US Financials ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.17	−2.4
Volatility	TSX ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.19	−2.4
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ Sensex	came apart	−0.23	−2.4
Equity regions	Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.23	−2.4
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ SMI	came apart	0.02	−2.4
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	0.04	−2.4
Equity regions	SMI ⟋ TAIEX	came apart	−0.24	−2.4
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ FTSE 100	came apart	0.03	−2.3
Bonds	US Tech ⟋ EM bonds (EMB)	came apart	0.02	−2.3
Volatility	US Materials ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.00	−2.3
Volatility	Jakarta — VIX (equity vol)	moved closer	−0.61	+2.3
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Financials	came apart	−0.15	−2.3
Equity regions	ASX 200 ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.18	−2.2
Bonds	Bovespa ⟋ EM bonds (EMB)	came apart	−0.10	−2.2
Equity regions	Sensex ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.28	−2.2
Equity regions	TAIEX ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.23	−2.2
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ ASX 200	came apart	−0.17	−2.2
Volatility	US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)	came apart	−0.21	−2.2
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ TSX	came apart	−0.17	−2.2
Equity regions	Mexico IPC ⟋ Tadawul	came apart	−0.22	−2.1
Equity regions	SMI ⟋ KOSPI	came apart	−0.37	−2.1
Credit	Tadawul — Euro HY credit	moved closer	0.58	+2.1
Equity regions	Hang Seng ⟋ Shanghai	came apart	0.03	−2.1
Credit	Bovespa ⟋ US IG credit	came apart	−0.17	−2.1
Credit	S&P 500 ⟋ US IG credit	came apart	0.34	−2.1
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Materials	came apart	−0.16	−2.1
Volatility	US Real estate ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.13	−2.1
Bonds	US Financials ⟋ US 10y Treasury	came apart	0.46	−2.1
Commodities	Hang Seng — Gold	moved closer	0.44	+2.1
Equity regions	Sensex ⟋ TAIEX	came apart	−0.15	−2.1
Volatility	Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.06	−2.1
US sectors	US Industrials ⟋ US Real estate	came apart	0.30	−2.1
Bonds	TAIEX ⟋ US 10y Treasury	came apart	−0.21	−2.0
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Health	came apart	−0.43	−2.0
Commodities	Sensex ⟋ Natural gas	came apart	0.18	−2.0
Bonds	KOSPI ⟋ Curve steepening (2s10s)	came apart	0.23	−2.0
Equity regions	Bovespa ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	0.16	−2.0
FX and crypto	US Industrials ⟋ Bitcoin	came apart	−0.27	−2.0

Three times before. Friday by Friday, from the week each one crossed.

One square a Friday, fourteen Fridays from the week the index crossed the Elevated line. Colour is height. The two worst on record and the most recent.

Episode

123468101214

What followed

Now Oct 2026 · week 3, open

3.1× in week 3, elevated. Two families hot, bonds not yet. Next week fills the dashed square.

2020 Feb 2020 · 20 weeks

Peaked at 22× in week 4, the worst on record. Back under the Elevated line after 20 weeks.

2008 Aug 2008 · 23 weeks

Peaked at 14× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 23 weeks.

Apr 2026 Feb 2026 · 18 weeks

Peaked at 4.7× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 18 weeks.

calmelevatedhighseverenext Friday184th most unsettled of 1,348 Fridays since 2001

The same colour.

What moved in seven days, and what didn't.

Severity, against a normal Friday

2.9× → 3.1×

Pairs behaving unlike their past

57 → 64

Families hot

2 of 7 → 2 of 7

New on the list

20 pairs · Bovespa ⟋ US HY credit among them

Reach into bonds

8 of 140 → 8 of 140 · not yet

Is the ground moving? Tremor Watch in a minute and a half. A seismograph can’t tell you when the next earthquake will come; it tells you whether the ground is moving. Tremor Watch does that for markets, whose ground is their relationships: every week it counts the ones that stopped behaving like their own past two years, with a reading for every week since 1997. 1 min 26 s · in English, with captions · The pictures are illustrations; the index since 1997 is the real reading · Descriptive, not a forecast.

Is the ground moving? Tremor Watch in a minute and a half.

A seismograph can’t tell you when the next earthquake will come; it tells you whether the ground is moving. Tremor Watch does that for markets, whose ground is their relationships: every week it counts the ones that stopped behaving like their own past two years, with a reading for every week since 1997.

1 min 26 s · in English, with captions · The pictures are illustrations; the index since 1997 is the real reading · Descriptive, not a forecast.

The next square is written on Saturday 7 November 2026.Every Saturday morning, for the week that ended on Friday.

753 pairs in seven families, each family weighing the same · correlation of weekly returns, weighted to the last few months (half-life nine weeks), Friday to Friday · a pair breaks when that correlation is two standard deviations away from its own previous two years (Fisher z, spread floored at sampling noise) · Calm, Elevated, High and Severe are the 75th, 90th and 97th percentiles of every week since 2001 · a normal Friday is the median week since 2001 · derived statistics only, no prices · since 1997, recomputed each week, the first published value kept.