PredictionMarketsPicks Quant

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

Canonical home: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp — docs, setup, the live wall and the per-tool track record. This repo is the bridge and the offline calculators; the server lives on the site.

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, Kalshi's 15-minute markets and perps (with liquidation estimates), live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.

Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it — per tool, wins and losses both, including the engines that lose money. The live record: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record

• Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
• Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
• 33 tools — 26 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set. Four of the free tools are fantasy-draft-only and parked until the 2027 offseason (see below), so 22 free tools answer in-season (the 2026 Senate map and per-race odds joined 2026-09-17; the Kalshi 15-minute board and the two perps tools joined 2026-09-26; the NHL board joined 2026-09-28).
• Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board. During the season four of them answer week-by-week NFL prop questions (player_outlook, explain_player, compare_players, sleepers_and_busts); the other four reopen for the 2027 offseason.

Connect

One click: Add to Cursor · Add to VS Code · Gemini CLI: gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp

Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predictionmarketspicks": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
    }
  }
}

That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 33 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.

npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp            # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft    # bridge to the fantasy-draft server (half parked until 2027)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local    # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all

--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the NFL model, or anything that reads a market.

Other hosted surfaces (same registry, same tool objects, different selection — no separate install):

Server	Endpoint	Exposes
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp	All 33 tools
com.predictionmarketspicks/fantasy-draft	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-draft/mcp	The 8 draft tools — four answer in season, four parked until the 2027 offseason
com.predictionmarketspicks/weather	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp	The 6-tool weather loop: edge_alerts (weather feed) + the five calculators
com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp	The 8-tool commodities desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (gold / silver / oil / bitcoin), market_pulse + three calculators

Tools

Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local

Tool	What it does
calculate_ev	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_size	Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
bayes_update	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
convert_probability	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.
base_rate_gap	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality.
combo_edge	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag.

Markets — free

Tool	What it does
fed_rate_odds	Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate.
fifteen_min_board	Every Kalshi 15-minute series live — crypto, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, currencies — with the open window's YES price, close time, settlement source, and how the last 96 windows settled.
perps_board	Every Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch.
perp_liquidation	Where a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over the hold.

Markets — free, depth-capped

Tool	What it does
find_arbitrage	Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro.
market_pulse	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free.

NFL in-season — free

Tool	What it does
nfl_power_ratings	PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.
nfl_win_probability	Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread.
nfl_ladder	The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED.
nfl_prop_board	This week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price for each side actually is.
ladder_arb	Ladder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one) and crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them.

NHL — free

Tool	What it does
nhl_edge	Goal Light — every NHL game and player contract priced against Kalshi, with the book consensus beside it and a 10,000-season simulation for the futures board.

Fantasy draft desk — half in season, half parked until 2027

Answering in season (free): player_outlook · explain_player · compare_players · sleepers_and_busts — the same names, now about this week: one player's Kalshi prop strikes, why the model prices them there, two to four players side by side, and the players the market over- and underprices.

Parked until the 2027 offseason: draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · adp_market_gaps — still registered (and free), but they answer with a redirect to the in-season NFL tools above rather than a draft answer. They reopen with the 2027 board.

Pro — live edge engines

commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts

Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed. edge_alerts is the one hybrid: Pro keys get the feed in real time, and without a key the same feed arrives delayed 24h.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Source

This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.

npm install
npm run smoke          # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge   # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local   # stdio server, 6 calculators

Or run the offline build with Docker:

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.