PredictionMarketsPicks Quant

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents institutional-grade quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform arbitrage, live edge signals, NFL model-vs-market edges, and a full 2026 fantasy football draft assistant. 22 tools — 15 free, 7 Pro.

• Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
• Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (Model Context Protocol registry)
• Docs / landing page: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp
• Manifest: server.json · also served at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/.well-known/mcp/server.json
• Type: Cloud service ☁️ · TypeScript 📇

Demo

Watch the 40-second walkthrough — connect the server with one command, then ask in plain English and get quarter-Kelly position sizing from kelly_size and a model-vs-Kalshi edge read from nfl_edge, returned inside the chat.

This repo is the public home and documentation for the hosted server. The server is live — no install, no build. Point any MCP client at the endpoint above.

It also ships a local, self-contained build of the six free calculators (src/) — a stdio MCP server with no network access that runs in any sandbox. See Run the free tier locally. The four Pro tools read live PMP edge engines and are only available on the hosted endpoint.

Tools

The free tier is a set of stateless quant calculators. Pro tools read PredictionMarketsPicks' live edge engines and require an API key.

Tool	Tier	What it does
calculate_ev	Free	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_size	Free	Optimal Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
bayes_update	Free	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence via Bayes' theorem; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
convert_probability	Free	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds (American odds carry no commas).
base_rate_gap	Free	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample-size quality.
combo_edge	Free	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, and a negative-correlation-trap flag. Renders as an interactive card in supported hosts.
nfl_power_ratings	Free	Gridiron Edge Rating (GER) for all 32 NFL teams — a defense-adjusted power rating with offense/defense/special-teams splits.
nfl_win_probability	Free	Turn an NFL spread and total into win probability, projected score, cover probability, and over/under probability.
draft_board	Free	The 2026 half-PPR fantasy draft board — every player ranked, blending the projection model with consensus ADP.
best_available	Free	Best players still on the board given the current pick and who's already gone.
player_outlook	Free	One player's 2026 outlook: projected points, floor/ceiling, boom/bust odds, and a SLEEPER / BUST read.
compare_players	Free	Compare 2–4 players side by side — projection, floor/ceiling, ADP, and draft round.
sleepers_and_busts	Free	The biggest gaps between the model and consensus ADP for 2026.
who_do_i_draft	Free	The single best pick right now given your roster and pick number.
adp_market_gaps	Free	Players whose Average Draft Position swings most between platforms — consensus vs ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo.
find_arbitrage	Pro	Cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup).
market_pulse	Pro	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores.
commodity_edge	Pro	Largest model edge on a Kalshi weekly-silver or twice-daily bitcoin strike, as a trade ticket (side, price, criterion, edge, tier, ¼-Kelly).
scan_mispricings	Pro	Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model, with direction, edge in points, and quarter-Kelly sizing.
nfl_edge	Pro	Where the PMP NFL model disagrees with live Kalshi prices — game lines, win-total futures, MVP, championship.
nfl_prop_edge	Pro	NFL player-prop edges — model projection vs the Kalshi prop line (passing, rushing, receiving yards).
edge_alerts	Pro	The edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Connect

Claude Code

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

Claude.ai, ChatGPT, or Cursor — add a custom connector / MCP server with the URL:

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

The 15 free tools work with no key. Pro tools require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key — see https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp.

Run the free tier locally

The six core free calculators run entirely offline as a stdio MCP server — no key, no network. Useful for air-gapped agents, testing, or sandboxed hosts.

npm install
npm start          # stdio MCP server: 6 free tools
npm run smoke      # end-to-end self-test

Or with Docker:

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

Point a stdio MCP client at node src/index.js (or the container). The local build ships the six core calculators only; the other 16 tools (draft assistant, NFL models, and the Pro edge engines) read live PMP data and are hosted-only — use the endpoint above.

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles.

License

MIT — see LICENSE. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks; this repository covers the server's public interface and documentation.