Antevo Tremor Watch

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Antevo · Tremor Watch The week ending Friday 6 November 2026 · published every Saturday · Permalink · JSON · Archive · Instruments

697 relationships, 77 stopped behaving.

Out of 1,349 Fridays since 2001, this is the 133rd most unsettled.

Every week we check how 697 pairs of markets stand to each other. This week the breaks gather in volatility and equity regions: 44 of 176 pairs, where a normal Friday has 9. Bonds have not joined in.

a normal Friday 1×

last week 3.0×

Oct 2008 · 14×

worst on record · Feb 2020 · 21×

this week 3.8×

Height

3.8×

a normal Friday. High: weeks this high come 10 in 100. Feb 2020 peaked at 21×, Oct 2008 at 14×.

Breadth

2 of 7 families hot: volatility and equity regions. A family is hot when three times as many of its pairs break as on a normal Friday.

Direction

week 4

Rising, 3.0× → 3.8×, fourth week above the Elevated line (2.1×). Last time it stood here on the way up: Jun 2026.

Reach into bonds

Not yet.

9 of 140 bond pairs breaking, where a normal Friday has 9. Credit: 11 of 112, normal 6.

Volatility

16 of 56 · normal 3

Equity regions

28 of 120 · normal 6

US sectors

6 of 45 · normal 3

Credit

11 of 112 · normal 6

Bonds

9 of 140 · normal 9

Commodities

5 of 112 · normal 6

FX and crypto

2 of 112 · normal 7

holdscame apartmoved closerVolatility: 16 breaking where a normal Friday has 3. Bonds: 9 where normal is 9. This first reading is provisional: 56 pairs have no reading yet and are filled in next Saturday. Explore this week on the radar.

Ten relationships that stopped behaving.

The ones you can name, ranked by how unusual. Of the 77, 33 are new this week; 44 were breaking last week too. A pair stays listed while it is more than two standard deviations from its own past.

1. 01 Sensex ⟋ TAIEX Usually move together; now they move against each other. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.67 · z −5.2
2. 02 Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex Usually move together; now they move against each other. new this week · came apart · correlation −0.52 · z −4.4
3. 03 Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol) Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.44 · z −4.0
4. 04 US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary Usually move together; much less so now. also last week · came apart · correlation 0.11 · z −3.6
5. 05 Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol) Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.22 · z −3.6
6. 06 KOSPI ⟋ Sensex Usually move together; now they move against each other. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.49 · z −3.5
7. 07 Hang Seng ⟋ TAIEX Usually move together; now they move against each other. new this week · came apart · correlation −0.37 · z −3.4
8. 08 Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC Usually move together; now they move against each other. also last week · came apart · correlation −0.36 · z −3.4
9. 09 S&P 500 ⟋ Sensex Usually move together; now they move against each other. new this week · came apart · correlation −0.31 · z −3.4
10. 10 US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) Usually a hedge for each other; much less so now. since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.02 · z −3.1

Left the list since last Friday: TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP) (z −2.9 → −1.6) · Sensex ⟋ Jakarta (z −2.5 → −1.7) · KOSPI ⟋ TIPS (TIP) (z −2.4 → −1.8) · and 14 more

The other 67 are real but not readable as a list. They are all in the field above, one mark each; here they are in a table.

Family	Pair	Direction	Correlation	z
Equity regions	Sensex ⟋ TAIEX	came apart	−0.67	−5.2
Equity regions	Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex	came apart	−0.52	−4.4
Volatility	Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.44	−4.0
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary	came apart	0.11	−3.6
Volatility	Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.22	−3.6
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ Sensex	came apart	−0.49	−3.5
Equity regions	Hang Seng ⟋ TAIEX	came apart	−0.37	−3.4
Equity regions	Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.36	−3.4
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ Sensex	came apart	−0.31	−3.4
Volatility	US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)	came apart	−0.02	−3.1
Credit	US Tech ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	−0.16	−3.1
Equity regions	SMI ⟋ Jakarta	came apart	−0.35	−3.0
Volatility	US Discretionary ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.30	−3.0
Credit	US Tech ⟋ US IG credit	came apart	0.10	−2.9
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.09	−2.9
Equity regions	FTSE 100 ⟋ Jakarta	came apart	−0.35	−2.9
Bonds	TAIEX ⟋ US 10y Treasury	came apart	−0.37	−2.9
Equity regions	Nikkei 225 ⟋ Hang Seng	came apart	−0.33	−2.8
Commodities	Hang Seng — Gold	moved closer	0.57	+2.8
Equity regions	ASX 200 ⟋ TAIEX	came apart	−0.13	−2.8
US sectors	US Industrials ⟋ US Real estate	came apart	0.14	−2.8
Volatility	FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.02	−2.8
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Real estate	came apart	−0.43	−2.7
Bonds	US Tech ⟋ EM bonds (EMB)	came apart	−0.05	−2.7
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.48	−2.7
Credit	Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY credit	came apart	−0.29	−2.7
Volatility	US Financials ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.07	−2.7
Equity regions	Hang Seng — Sensex	moved closer	0.66	+2.6
Equity regions	Hang Seng ⟋ KOSPI	came apart	−0.32	−2.6
Credit	TAIEX ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	−0.12	−2.6
Equity regions	TAIEX ⟋ Mexico IPC	came apart	−0.34	−2.6
Commodities	Tadawul ⟋ Natural gas	came apart	0.47	−2.6
Volatility	TSX ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.12	−2.5
Equity regions	Nikkei 225 ⟋ ASX 200	came apart	−0.02	−2.5
Credit	S&P 500 ⟋ US IG credit	came apart	0.27	−2.5
Commodities	Sensex ⟋ Copper	came apart	−0.24	−2.5
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ ASX 200	came apart	−0.25	−2.5
Volatility	US Staples ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.28	−2.4
Bonds	SMI — TIPS (TIP)	moved closer	0.67	+2.4
Volatility	US Real estate ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.26	−2.4
Equity regions	SMI ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.29	−2.4
Volatility	Hang Seng ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.19	−2.4
Volatility	ASX 200 ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	−0.11	−2.4
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Financials	came apart	−0.21	−2.4
FX and crypto	US Utilities ⟋ Bitcoin	came apart	−0.44	−2.4
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ ASX 200	came apart	0.20	−2.3
Credit	Nikkei 225 ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	−0.07	−2.3
Equity regions	Bovespa ⟋ Tadawul	came apart	−0.30	−2.3
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ TSX	came apart	0.36	−2.3
Equity regions	Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.23	−2.3
Volatility	TAIEX — VIX (equity vol)	moved closer	−0.67	+2.3
Volatility	SMI ⟋ VIX (equity vol)	came apart	0.03	−2.2
Equity regions	KOSPI ⟋ TSX	came apart	−0.19	−2.2
Bonds	TAIEX ⟋ Intl bonds (BNDX)	came apart	−0.29	−2.2
Credit	US Industrials ⟋ US IG credit	came apart	0.03	−2.2
Volatility	S&P 500 ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)	came apart	−0.25	−2.2
Credit	US Discretionary ⟋ US HY credit	came apart	0.28	−2.2
Credit	S&P 500 ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	0.06	−2.2
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ SMI	came apart	0.06	−2.2
Volatility	World (ACWI) ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)	came apart	−0.29	−2.2
Bonds	US Financials ⟋ US 10y Treasury	came apart	0.49	−2.1
Commodities	Sensex ⟋ Natural gas	came apart	0.20	−2.1
Bonds	S&P 500 ⟋ EM bonds (EMB)	came apart	0.25	−2.1
Bonds	Bovespa ⟋ EM bonds (EMB)	came apart	−0.10	−2.1
US sectors	US Tech ⟋ US Staples	came apart	−0.49	−2.1
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ Hang Seng	came apart	−0.11	−2.1
Equity regions	ASX 200 ⟋ Bovespa	came apart	−0.16	−2.1
Volatility	KOSPI ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)	came apart	0.03	−2.1
Bonds	World (ACWI) ⟋ EM bonds (EMB)	came apart	0.31	−2.1
Credit	World (ACWI) ⟋ Euro HY credit	came apart	0.09	−2.1
Equity regions	S&P 500 ⟋ FTSE 100	came apart	0.08	−2.1
Equity regions	FTSE 100 ⟋ KOSPI	came apart	−0.30	−2.1
Commodities	Shanghai — Silver	moved closer	0.67	+2.1
Bonds	Sensex — Intl bonds (BNDX)	moved closer	0.59	+2.1
Credit	Tadawul — Euro HY credit	moved closer	0.58	+2.1
US sectors	US Financials ⟋ US Industrials	came apart	0.27	−2.0
FX and crypto	US Financials ⟋ Bitcoin	came apart	−0.25	−2.0

Three times before. Friday by Friday, from the week each one crossed.

One square a Friday, fourteen Fridays from the week the index crossed the Elevated line. Colour is height. The two worst on record and the most recent.

Episode

12468101214

What followed

Now Oct 2026 · week 4, open

3.8× in week 4, high. Two families hot, bonds not yet. Next week fills the dashed square.

2020 Feb 2020 · 20 weeks

Peaked at 21× in week 4, the worst on record. Back under the Elevated line after 20 weeks. Replay it in the field · on the radar.

2008 Aug 2008 · 23 weeks

Peaked at 14× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 23 weeks. Replay it on the radar.

Apr 2026 Feb 2026 · 18 weeks

Peaked at 4.7× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 18 weeks.

calmelevatedhighseverenext Friday133rd most unsettled of 1,349 Fridays since 2001

One square darker.

What moved in seven days, and what didn't.

Severity, against a normal Friday

3.0× → 3.8×

Pairs behaving unlike their past

62 → 77

Families hot

2 of 7 → 2 of 7

New on the list

33 pairs · Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex among them

Reach into bonds

9 of 140 → 9 of 140 · not yet

Is the ground moving? Tremor Watch in a minute and a half. A seismograph can’t tell you when the next earthquake will come; it tells you whether the ground is moving. Tremor Watch does that for markets, whose ground is their relationships: every week it counts the ones that stopped behaving like their own past two years, with a reading for every week since 1997. 1 min 26 s · in English, with captions · The pictures are illustrations; the index since 1997 is the real reading · Descriptive, not a forecast.

Is the ground moving? Tremor Watch in a minute and a half.

A seismograph can’t tell you when the next earthquake will come; it tells you whether the ground is moving. Tremor Watch does that for markets, whose ground is their relationships: every week it counts the ones that stopped behaving like their own past two years, with a reading for every week since 1997.

1 min 26 s · in English, with captions · The pictures are illustrations; the index since 1997 is the real reading · Descriptive, not a forecast.

The next square is written on Saturday 14 November 2026.Every Saturday morning, for the week that ended on Friday.

753 pairs in seven families, each family weighing the same · correlation of weekly returns, weighted to the last few months (half-life nine weeks), Friday to Friday · a pair breaks when that correlation is two standard deviations away from its own previous two years (Fisher z, spread floored at sampling noise) · Calm, Elevated, High and Severe are the 75th, 90th and 97th percentiles of every week since 2001 · a normal Friday is the median week since 2001 · derived statistics only, no prices · since 1997, recomputed each week, the first published value kept.