comps-valuation

Comps Valuation

Skill Configuration

User Context Preflight

Before searching connectors, retrieving evidence, or drafting output, run python3 skills/user-context/scripts/user_context_preflight.py with the shell working directory set to this plugin's root, and follow the returned saved_context, source_category_plan, and next_action. Set the working directory before the first attempt; do not probe alternate relative paths. Missing context must not block the requested workflow. Do not initialize state or run onboarding during ordinary workflow work.

If next_action.id = "offer_orientation" and the parent router has not already handled it, complete the requested work first and append its one-line optional setup offer once.

Source Resolution

Load ../../shared/workflow-source-resolution.md. Use source_category_plan lazily and attempt only the categories needed for this workflow: company_filings_ir, market_data_estimates, and portfolio_models_trackers.

Deliverable Intake And Judgment Standard

Apply the presentation-surface precedence in ../../shared/deliverable-intake-policy.md. This workflow's natural artifact is a polished standalone HTML valuation report for report mode or an XLSX workbook when reusable comps calculations and tables are central. Do not choose chat-only output unless the user explicitly requests a lightweight response.

Before source gathering or analysis for a new standalone reader-facing hero deliverable, load ../../shared/deliverable-intake-policy.md and use its adaptive request_user_input preflight for materially unresolved format, depth, audience/use, or focus choices. Reuse resolved preferences downstream. For substantive investment judgment, apply ../../shared/final-deliverable-framework.md.

Equity Valuation PM Standard

Load ../../shared/equity-valuation-pm-standard.md and ../../shared/pm-judgment-heuristics.md for substantial model, valuation, scenario, model-update, or audit work.

The output must state what the current stock price implies, the variant estimate path, whether upside is driven by fundamentals, multiple expansion, mix, capital return, sentiment, or event probability, what breaks first in downside, the valuation posture and next underwriting step, and what evidence is missing. State what changes target, rating, sizing, hedge, trim, exit, or watchlist status only when the user requests portfolio action or provides the relevant holding, benchmark, mandate, and liquidity context.

Keep equity valuation as the center of gravity. Debt is allowed only as an input to common-equity value through net debt, cost of debt, leverage, liquidity, refinancing risk, or downside equity impairment. Use Credit Markets for bond comps, loan comps, CDS, spread/yield relative value, covenant-package analysis, debt-security valuation, recovery waterfall, restructuring valuation, creditworthiness, private-credit or public-credit instrument underwriting, or distressed claim valuation.

Mode Selection

Select the mode from the request and available context; do not ask merely because both modes exist.

• report mode: peer framing, multiple interpretation, implied valuation or price read-through, peer-set review, PM-facing comps argument, or a standalone HTML report or explicitly requested standardized dashboard without an editable model.
• workbook mode: Excel, Sheets, CSV/XLSX export, refreshable data, formulas, EV bridges, peer-table templates, workbook/model updates, structured sensitivities, or auditing an existing comps workbook.
• If an existing workbook is supplied and the requested output changes or validates it, choose workbook.
• Ask one focused question only when either mode is equally plausible and choosing incorrectly would materially change the user's intended artifact or decision workflow. Prefer proceeding with a stated inferred default when reliance is not impaired.

Common Workflow

1. Establish security, issuer or target, audience mode, valuation date, fiscal basis, currency, and thesis question.
2. Source and label price, shares, EV bridge, reported/adjusted/consensus denominators, forward estimates, and peer rationale.
3. Build Core, Secondary, Excluded, and optional Watchlist peer roles.
4. Test metric comparability, stale data, outliers, valuation range, premium/discount logic, and PM action implications.
5. State what is priced in, what would change the thesis, and what evidence is missing.
6. Render or materialize the selected mode.

Report Mode

Read references/peer-selection.md, references/module-rules.md, references/source-and-staleness-rules.md, references/valuation-readthrough.md, references/output-templates.md, and references/p0-integrations.md only when relevant. For a substantial reusable or HTML comps report, produce a polished standalone HTML comps report following ../../shared/html-artifact-standard.md; let the valuation question and supported evidence determine the hierarchy. Use dashboard-builder only when the user explicitly asks for a standardized dashboard, reusable dashboard template, PM cockpit, or structured payload-driven render; in that case, load references/DASHBOARD_PACK.md and hand over a public_equity_investing_dashboard.v1 payload.

For a standalone HTML comps report, keep the first read compact:

1. Valuation read: whether the premium or discount is supported and the key unresolved proof point.
2. Four or five high-signal metrics: current price, primary trading multiple, premium or discount to core peers, implied value range only when supportable, and the key operating proof point.
3. Peer-set rationale: Core, Secondary, and Excluded peers with concise inclusion or exclusion reasons.
4. Core trading-comps table.
5. Premium or discount bridge grounded in growth, margin, business-model fit, and data quality.
6. Valuation posture, material evidence gaps, and concise source ledger.

Express a valuation posture such as premium partly supported, screening-only, or not sufficiently supported for a new-money decision. Do not issue add, trim, hedge, sizing, or exit instructions unless the user requests portfolio action or supplies relevant holding and mandate context.

When HTML is delivered, keep citations traceable but readable: do not fragment tickers, prices, multiples, percentages, dates, numeric ranges, metric names, or peer labels into separately linked tokens. Visually inspect local HTML via local headless-browser screenshots, not the in-app Browser plugin, and iterate on hierarchy, density, clipping, citation rendering, and whitespace before delivery.

Workbook Mode

Read references/workbook/comps-framework.md, references/workbook/data-sourcing-and-connectors.md, references/workbook/model-workbook-spec.md, references/workbook/qa-and-pressure-testing.md, references/workbook/review-memo-template.md, and references/workbook/dashboard-map.md only when relevant. Use scripts/create_comps_template.py, scripts/materialize_screening_comps.py, and scripts/audit_comps_workbook.py as appropriate. Preserve an existing workbook before rebuilding it.

When To Invoke Support

Load ../../shared/support-layer-routing-contract.md when source/data/QC support is needed. Use financials-normalizer for messy issuer or peer inputs, model-audit-tieout for standalone workbook audit, and deck-report-qc before circulation. Route credit-first conclusions to Credit Markets.